SCC Preview: Can Gordon make a move in Texas?

Here's the way I look at the Sprint Cup title fight right now for Mark Martin and Jeff Gordon. It's like they are in a bowling match. They've reached the 10th frame and have to throw three strikes in a row to close out the game and win. Going into Texas, I think it's Gordon who has the best shot among those two to hook a ball right into the pocket and gain a few points back on Jimmie Johnson, who is now in firm control of bagging a fourth straight championship after missing the wrecks at Talladega.

There are a number of reasons I like Gordon going into the Dickies 500. Yes, he won in Fort Worth back in the spring, but he was also the runner-up last fall. Plus, he's scored more points on the superspeedways than anyone else this year. Finally, in the past four races on 1.5-mile tracks, the Dupont Chevy driver has two runner-ups, a worst finish of eighth and an average finish of fourth.

The question is will Jimmie Johnson lead the charge to try to take the win away from Gordon? Johnson could go two ways. One, he could just stroke to a top-10 finish and set it up to where he could go to Phoenix and do the same thing, thus icing the championship before he even has to fly down to Miami. Or he could head to Texas with the same car he blew everybody away with at Charlotte, race to win and set it up where all he has to do is take the green flag in Arizona next week and the title is his. That way he can run all out in not just one, but both final races. In the fall of 2007, Johnson went out and won the fall showdown at Texas. Last year, he eased on home 15th.

If JJ puts it in cruise control, Tony Stewart is one of the guys who should go head-to-head with Gordon. Stewart won at Kansas and ran stronger than his 13th-place finish at Charlotte would indicate. He also ran fourth at Texas with his new team earlier this year, and they are certainly stronger now than they were then. His teammate Ryan Newman has top-10 potential as well.

Also keep an eye out for Martin. He's fourth in points scored on the superspeedways this year with a win, two top-5s and three top-10s in the past four races on the 1.5-mile speedplants. Not to mention he was sixth at Texas in the season's seventh Sprint Cup event. Juan Pablo Montoya should also be in the hunt. Recently, he was third at Atlanta and fourth at Kansas before Martin wrecked the both of them out of contention at Charlotte. Seventh in the spring at Texas, the Colombian driver has turned into a weekly top-5 contender. Denny Hamlin hit a bump in the road at Charlotte, but in the previous three outings on the 1.5-mile tracks, the FedEx Toyota driver had two fifth-place finishes and a sixth.

Among the midlevel drivers, Greg Biffle could dial up some big points. Roush Fenway Racing has struggled to win races on the bigger tracks this year, but Biffle has ground out some solid finishes and is fifth in points scored on the intermediate speedways. Biffle was third in the spring Texas shootout, and teammate Matt Kenseth was fifth. In the most recent race on a 1.5-mile track, Kenseth was the runner-up in Charlotte. Tenth in April, Carl Edwards had won the previous two races at Texas, but the problem with the Missouri native is that he hasn't shown much lately on tracks like the one in Fort Worth. Jeff Burton's value is beginning to climb again, but he could be a pick this weekend who will save cap space and deposit a nice chunk of points. He was ninth earlier this year at Texas when RCR was really struggling with its speedway program. His worst finish in his past four TMS starts is 13th, and he also has a pair of sixth-place runs.

Superspeedway points 2009: Top 25

1. Jeff Gordon (3,214), 2. Jimmie Johnson (3,125), 3. Tony Stewart (3,115), 4. Mark Martin (2,928), 5. Greg Biffle (2,781), 6. Kasey Kahne (2,753), 7. Juan Pablo Montoya (2,719), 8. David Reutimann (2,690), 9. Carl Edwards (2,687), 10. Kurt Busch (2,648), 11. Ryan Newman (2,612), 12. Matt Kenseth (2,586), 13. Denny Hamlin (2,535), 14. Brian Vickers (2,506), 15. Clint Bowyer (2,494), 16. Kyle Busch (2,418), 17. Joey Logano (2,289), 18. Kevin Harvick (2,252), 19. Casey Mears (2,232), 20. Jeff Burton (2,165), 21. Martin Truex Jr. (2,145), 22. Sam Hornish Jr. (2,065), 23. Jamie McMurray (2,014), 24. David Stremme (1,985), 25. Dale Earnhardt Jr. (1,964)

Big Bucks (SCC value 22.0 and up)

I like Jeff Gordon (24.6) a lot. He's a little cheaper than Jimmie Johnson (25.6) and he's got more incentive to go all out. I also think Tony Stewart (23.7), Mark Martin (23.6), Juan Pablo Montoya (23.0), Denny Hamlin (22.5) and Greg Biffle (22.0) are potential top-5 cars.

Serious Coins (SCC value 19.0 to 22.0)

Kyle Busch (21.8) should be able to run strong, and since it's the first week with his new crew chief, you can bet he's going to be up on top of the wheel to try to show up the old crew chief. Matt Kenseth (21.3) has had a solid string of strong runs at Texas. I think a little lower, both Brian Vickers (20.4) and Jeff Burton (20.1) may offer some help as well. The sleepers in the group could be David Reutimann (21.0), Casey Mears (19.8) and possibly Joey Logano (19.7).

Budget Boys (SCC value 13.0 to 19.0)

You'll have to keep an eye on the practices and qualifying, but Kevin Harvick (18.8), Jamie McMurray (17.8), Martin Truex Jr. (17.7) and Dale Earnhardt Jr. (17.2) will need to get some serious consideration. Some others who should be on the radar screen include David Ragan (16.2), Bobby Labonte (16.2), and Bill Elliott (14.8).

Debit ... not credit

I think up on top Kurt Busch (23.1) is top-10 potential, but there are too many drivers just above or below his value who are poised for the top 5. I feel the same way about Ryan Newman (22.2) and Kasey Kahne (22.2). In the past four 1.5-mile track races, Kahne has been great, but his record over the past four starts at Texas is not good at all. In the serious coin category, I'm not a big fan of Carl Edwards (21.9) going in. He'll be solid, but at just 0.1 above him, teammate Greg Biffle is probably a better pick. I also rate Kyle Busch ahead of him as well, even though Busch comes at a cheaper price. Clint Bowyer (21.6) is so up-and-down at Texas lately with finishes of 19th, 10th, fourth and 22nd in his past four starts. Brad Keselowski (20.8) is running his first race for Roger Penske in the No. 12 car. He's never worked with this crew chief and we'll have to see how things go when he doesn't have that monster Hendrick Motorsports horsepower under the hood. I also don't think the risk-reward ratio is that great with Marcos Ambrose (19.5) this week. Among the budget boys, AJ Allmendinger is running a Ford for the first time and you can't be sure how that's going to turn out. With finishes of 40th, 36th and 40th in the past three races, I would probably steer clear of Sam Hornish Jr.

Guru Garrow's gang

I once again wound up with a team at Talladega in which all five of my drivers wound up leading the race, but then four out of five wound up wrecking. The lone exception was Dale Earnhardt Jr., who would get credit for 11th after leading five times. You put him, though, with Jeff Gordon, Ryan Newman, Martin Truex Jr. and Kevin Harvick, and I had a whopping score of 483. For my preliminary team at Texas, I'm going to keep Gordon and Junior. Then, I'm going to add Denny Hamlin, Matt Kenseth and Bill Elliott. All of this, of course, subject to change after the crew chief chat Sunday morning.

Mark Garrow covers fantasy racing for ESPN.com.